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Jeopardy of Communism: Xi’s China

Right Up the Fool’s Alley

The world is aghast, grappling with ever so dwindling possibilities of containing the Chinese COVID-19, with numerous deaths at the doorsteps of Asia, US and Europe.

Guess who is up, about and gunning for it. Yes, the Chinese province of Wuhan. As if, what was the sulk about mates!

In an overtly glorious mood, the Chinese government unsealed up Wuhan, the epicentre of the pandemic, for business from March 28, after 61 days of complete lockdown. The Chinese state-owned media reported that China Europe Railway Express that originates in Wuhan also resumed its service, while most local businesses also restarted operations in the city.

How precisely and very right at the sweet spot of it, China finds itself at, time shall reveal, but indications lay bare in front of us, now itself.

Extent of Chinese global supply chain dominance can be fathomed by US Department of Commerce study, which found that 97% of all antibiotics sold in the US come from China. “If you’re the Chinese and you want to really just destroy us,” Gary Cohn, former chief economic adviser to US President Donald Trump, observed, “just stop sending us antibiotics.”

However, for all the talk of Chinese driven Global Supply Chain, on which the world has had come to depend on in last two decades, what is frightening is how fragile, inconsistent, and untrustworthy is the Chinese manufacturing setup, despite being audaciously albeit eerily driven by Communist Government of China.

Stolen Technology-based Manufacturing Sector

Cheap does come Stale

Chinese new era romance, the Turkish government has cast aside Chinese made coronavirus rapid testing kits, after finding out that they gave inaccurate results. As soon, Spain revealed that it had withdrawn 9,000 Chinese made kits after realising that they had only 30 percent accuracy. A Czech media outlet also reported that up to 80 percent of the 150,000 portable quick test kits, that China delivered to the republic earlier this month, were faulty.

This lack of expertise and overdependence on fit-and-sell theme, specific to China, wherein for subpart, taking different technologies from different countries, dating different times/generations (rendering them very incompatible with uneven performance) and fit them with aim of  “ease and cost” rather than “performance”, is nothing new.

Jordan purchased six CH-4B unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) produced by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) in 2016. However, within just three years, the kingdom had put them up for disposal.

Cameroon purchased four brand new Chinese attack helicopters, one of them crashed shortly after delivery, causing a freeze in new acquisitions.

During an Indonesian Navy exercise, two Chinese made C-705 missiles failed to hit their targets after launching from two KCR-40 attack ships.

Similarly, engineering industry worldwide, has been for the last decade, going back to American, German, European and Japanese manufacturing and sourcing, after initial disastrous Chinese procurements.

It is a known fact that Chinese heavy Industry was never trusted since the Banqiao Dam Failure in China, more sardonically remembered as The Unbreakable Breaks. Due to culture of Bribing local governments and availability of draconian uncensored loan from Chinese Banks, many Asian and African countries have had Chinese investments only for their critical infrastructure development. However, countries have been avoiding Chinese heavy equipment manufacturing, except welcoming the unreliable but cheap, trifle use Plastics.

World Economy: Coming Days

China has got the jumpstart to World Economy post-COVID-19, it’s up and galloping. In recent future, they shall be unopposed, with US and Europe manufacturing sector coming to a grinding halt. World will be dependent of China’s Sweat Shop based churning out of goods. Will it come at steep price?

How much shall the US interfere in price regulations and active policing of the trade practices that are likely to be employed by China, equally if not more than before, exploitative and debt inducing? That is yet to come to fore, however, given EU and Trump’s aggressive stance on the same, that is very likely.

Short term replenishment of its foreign reserves, is being expected by China, given the supply chain windfall, courtesy COVID-19. Why not long term?

Answer simply lies, other than the fact of stop-gap and inconsistent technology being given for sale, is also China exposing its underbelly, of lack of ethics, regulations, foresight and sheer irresponsible global conduct, that they have exhibited in last six months of covering up the outbreak of COVID-19. While it may have its reasons, instituted in the manner they execute their version of Communism, for the world it is sheer incapability of a government, at its most unabashedly shameless display. Nothing short of disgraceful, this renders China as a horde of people, than a nation that is answerable for its conduct.

How does the world react in long term?

Globalisation will never be the same and will experience a reset of sorts. Initially, all nations shall rush to execute self-dependence, initially for pharma and medical instrumentation sector, and later for all of their consumer industry and manufacturing.

Thereafter they shall distance their supply chain away from Chinese sphere, probably go for reliable partners including having duplicity.  Cold war like grouping of nations is very much expected, with public ownership of key industries back on the agenda. We will see partial nationalisation or Group of Nations, on the lines of economic entantes.

 We shall see a more careful acceptance of Foreign Investments, to ensure foreign ownership is not dominated by one country, equally along with strategic assets and geopolitical risks.

In this China shall continue to sell plastic trifles to third world, not anything more.


Pugnacious: Indian Manufacturing Sector Be

People have lost trust in China to head the world, into future. China has missed the bus, and World Health Organization’s statements of India is a proof of who are entrusted ones, for shepherding in times of the global fightback and in future.

With due respect to Chinese community ingoing with spirit of humankind, however, the political system of a country determines its quality and effectiveness of response. The Chinese manner of functioning is reminiscent of the 80s and 90s functioning of Communist Russia, effective and functional, at lower isolated levels but ironically clueless in strategic terms. This is how lack of fostering representative thinking and compelled, enforced tunnel vision, solely to further Communist party agenda of lopsided, irrelevant concepts, comes to be.

India stands at the moment of destiny. Not being part of RCEP, India has shown to the world, that it views itself at the fulcrum of the Indo Pacific. Historically India has not been aggressive in its economic outreach, which stands to cement the trust. India, with its recent ties with Japan, Iran, UAE, and Africa can foster regional and transcontinental trade equanimity.

India has the advantage of a negligible manufacturing sector till now. However, also it is a fact that India has enormous scope to develop the same. PM Modi’s vision of Make in India can be furthered, with incentives to promote domestic manufacturing. The trust that India has built-in last eight decades, especially with confident leadership strides in the last seven years, shall go a long way to reinvigorate the global trading municipal therein.

While Chinese hegemony in global supply chain shall be reset, in next two years, India, unlike China, shall get a head start, to get the economic layout redrawn and get a march ahead.

03 April 20/Friday                                                                                  Written By: Fayaz

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